Methodology Center
The public framework behind Capitora Intelligence™.
Capitora Intelligence is a research platform. Every index, score, and signal we publish is derived from primary public data, processed through a documented pipeline, and reviewed by analysts before reaching the product. This page explains what each proprietary model measures, what inputs feed it, and what it should — and should not — be used for. Private weights, prompts, and ranking rules are not disclosed.
00 · Platform
Capitora Intelligence™.
The umbrella research system that powers every Capitora product surface. It coordinates the indices, graphs, and review steps described below into a single, citation-ready intelligence layer.
What it is
An institutional intelligence platform that maps the flow of public and corporate capital through five layers — government obligation, corporate capex commitment, supply-chain qualification, institutional positioning, and market reaction — and exposes the evidence chain behind every conclusion.
Why it matters
In capital-intensive sectors, authoritative public data describes where money is being committed long before that commitment is priced in. Capitora Intelligence assembles that data into a coherent, auditable view so decision-makers can act on it earlier and defend the call with primary sources.
Who uses it
Institutional investors, federal contractors and prime suppliers, corporate strategy and corp-dev teams, and state and regional economic-development leaders.
Inputs / data sources
Primary federal records (USAspending.gov, SAM.gov, FPDS, agency budget data), regulatory filings (SEC EDGAR, FERC, NRC, state PUCs), permitting and interconnection registries, and curated public corporate disclosures. No private broker data, no scraped paywalled content.
Outputs
Indices, scored entities, dossiers, alerts, the Morning Intelligence Brief, and the Executive Intelligence Brief — each linked back through the Evidence Chain.
Example use case
A long-only manager uses Capitora Intelligence to triangulate a federal obligation surge, a corresponding state interconnection-queue expansion, and a qualified-supplier list — and arrives at a thesis with primary citations before sell-side coverage moves.
Transparency note
Capitora publishes what each model measures, the categories of inputs it uses, and the review cadence. Specific weights, normalization parameters, and analyst workflows are proprietary and not disclosed.
Limitations / disclaimer
Capitora is a research and intelligence platform. Nothing here constitutes investment, legal, or tax advice. Outputs describe observed capital concentration; they are not forecasts of security prices.
01 · Index
Capital Rotation Index (CRI).
A directional view of where institutional capital is rotating between sectors and themes Capitora tracks — read for confirmation of, or divergence from, the underlying flow story.
What it is
A composite index expressing the net direction and breadth of institutional positioning across the capital flows Capitora monitors (e.g. AI infrastructure, grid modernization, defense, semiconductors).
Why it matters
Capital flow stories that are confirmed by rotating institutional positioning tend to be more durable. Divergence between an obligation surge and the CRI is itself a high-information signal.
Who uses it
Portfolio managers and allocators sizing thematic exposure; corporate strategy teams reading institutional sentiment around adjacent sectors.
Inputs / data sources
SEC 13F position deltas, Form 4 insider activity, ETF flow direction across the relevant sector universe, and breadth measures derived from public filings.
Outputs
A directional reading per tracked theme, a cross-theme rotation map, and change-over-time series surfaced in the dashboard and reports.
Example use case
A grid-modernization signal fires; the CRI for utility-adjacent industrials has turned positive for two consecutive cycles — a manager treats this as confirmation and adds exposure to qualified suppliers.
Transparency note
Capitora publishes the categories of inputs and the universe definition. Exact weights and the proprietary normalization are not disclosed.
Limitations / disclaimer
The CRI describes observed positioning; it is not a price target, not a buy or sell recommendation, and not predictive of any individual security's return.
02 · Score
Opportunity Score (0–100).
A 0–100 measure of the intensity and breadth of capital concentration in a state, sector, or theme. It is an aggregation of objective public inputs — not an analyst opinion about future returns.
What it is
A normalized, cross-universe score that summarizes how concentrated tracked capital flows are at a given target (state, sector, or theme) relative to the broader universe.
Why it matters
Single data points are noisy. Opportunity Score collapses several primary signals into one comparable number so users can rank and triage opportunities consistently.
Who uses it
Investors screening themes, economic-development leaders benchmarking their state, and corporate strategists prioritizing market entry.
Inputs / data sources
Categories of inputs include AI-infrastructure intensity (permitted DC sf, hyperscaler PPA capacity, interconnection queue growth), federal momentum (USAspending and SAM.gov pace), capital rotation (positioning deltas), hidden- winner density, and energy/grid risk (reliability council forecasts).
Outputs
A 0–100 score per target plus a peer-relative rank, with the underlying inputs available via the Evidence Chain for inspection.
Example use case
A site-selection team filters U.S. states with Opportunity Score ≥ 75 and a rising Federal Flow Index to shortlist candidate markets for a new facility.
Transparency note
Capitora discloses the input categories. Specific weights, winsorization thresholds, and the proprietary normalization are reviewed quarterly and not disclosed; material weight changes are versioned in the changelog.
Limitations / disclaimer
A high Opportunity Score reflects observed capital concentration. It is not a buy signal, a price target, or investment advice.
04 · Graph
EntityGraph™.
A linked map of agencies, programs, prime contractors, suppliers, facilities, and corporate parents — the substrate that lets every Capitora signal travel from a public document to a tradeable name.
What it is
A normalized graph of entities (federal agencies, programs, prime contractors, subsidiaries, facilities, and listed parents) and the relationships between them, built from primary public records.
Why it matters
Public data is fragmented: an award is filed under one DUNS, the parent trades under a different ticker, and the relevant facility sits in a third registry. EntityGraph stitches these together so a single signal can be evaluated end-to-end.
Who uses it
Analysts tracing a contract to the listed parent; corp-dev mapping supply-chain exposure; compliance teams understanding affiliate structure.
Inputs / data sources
SAM.gov entity records, SEC EDGAR (10-K subsidiaries, 8-K disclosures), FPDS contractor data, state corporate registries, FERC and NRC facility filings, and curated corporate disclosures.
Outputs
Resolved entity nodes with canonical identifiers, relationship edges, and confidence-typed links surfaced inside dossiers and the Evidence Chain.
Example use case
A new DoD award is filed to a subsidiary; EntityGraph resolves it to the listed parent and exposes the percentage of revenue concentration for that program.
Transparency note
Capitora discloses the categories of sources used to build the graph. Resolution heuristics, entity-matching thresholds, and the disambiguation workflow are not disclosed.
Limitations / disclaimer
EntityGraph reflects public records as filed. It does not constitute legal advice about corporate structure, ownership, or affiliation.
05 · Provenance
Evidence Chain™.
The provenance layer behind every Capitora output. Each conclusion is traceable, citation by citation, to the primary public document it rests on.
What it is
A linked record of the primary documents, filings, and registry entries that support a given signal, score, or dossier, ordered so a reader can reconstruct how the conclusion was reached.
Why it matters
Institutional decisions require defensible sourcing. Evidence Chain replaces opaque “black-box” outputs with citation-grade provenance an analyst, IC member, or auditor can verify independently.
Who uses it
Investment committees, federal contracting officers, corporate strategy teams preparing internal memos, and compliance functions reviewing research workflow.
Inputs / data sources
The same primary records that feed Capitora Intelligence — federal procurement, SEC filings, regulatory dockets, permitting registries — captured with stable references and timestamps.
Outputs
An ordered citation trail attached to every signal, score, brief, and dossier, with direct links to the underlying public source where available.
Example use case
An IC challenges a Hidden Winners thesis; the analyst walks the Evidence Chain from the obligation filing to the supplier disclosure to the institutional positioning data — in minutes, not days.
Transparency note
The structure of the chain and the categories of evidence it surfaces are public. How Capitora selects, weights, and orders citations within a chain is proprietary and not disclosed.
Limitations / disclaimer
Evidence Chain documents public sources as filed; it does not warrant the accuracy of those underlying filings.
06 · Index
Federal Flow Index (FFI).
A directional measure of federal obligation pace across the programs and agencies Capitora tracks — designed to identify acceleration or deceleration before agency narratives shift.
What it is
A composite index summarizing trailing federal obligation flow, award velocity, and program-level cadence across tracked categories (e.g. AI infrastructure, defense, grid, semiconductors).
Why it matters
Federal flow leads recognized revenue by multiple quarters. A turn in the FFI frequently precedes guidance revisions and supplier earnings inflection.
Who uses it
Federal contractors gauging downstream pipeline; investors sizing thematic exposure tied to federal capex; policy and economic-development teams tracking program execution.
Inputs / data sources
USAspending.gov obligation pace, SAM.gov award velocity, FPDS contractor data, and agency budget trajectory drawn from public budget data.
Outputs
A directional reading per tracked theme, an agency-level breakdown, and trend series surfaced in the dashboard and the Morning Intelligence Brief.
Example use case
A defense prime monitors FFI for unmanned-systems programs; a sustained acceleration prompts an earlier capacity-planning conversation with suppliers.
Transparency note
Capitora publishes the input categories and the universe definition. Smoothing windows, weights, and the proprietary normalization are not disclosed.
Limitations / disclaimer
The FFI tracks obligation flow, not outlays or revenue recognition. It is not a forecast of any contractor's reported results.
07 · Index
Agency Momentum Index (AMI).
An agency-level view of obligation cadence, program launches, and procurement velocity — read to identify which agencies are accelerating execution and which are stalling.
What it is
A per-agency score that captures the pace of obligation and procurement activity relative to the agency's own trailing baseline and to the broader federal distribution.
Why it matters
Agencies execute on very different cadences. AMI lets users compare and rank agency execution consistently, surfacing acceleration that would be hidden in absolute dollar totals.
Who uses it
Federal contractors prioritizing BD coverage; investors mapping which agencies are actually deploying authorized funds; policy teams benchmarking execution.
Inputs / data sources
USAspending.gov, SAM.gov, FPDS, agency-specific procurement portals where public, and historical baselines derived from those same sources.
Outputs
A per-agency score, a ranked view across agencies, and a change-over-time series available in the dashboard and reports.
Example use case
A cybersecurity vendor sees AMI rising for two civilian agencies after a budget authorization — and reallocates BD capacity toward those agencies a quarter ahead of competitors reacting to the same news.
Transparency note
Capitora publishes the data categories used. Baseline windows, score weights, and the proprietary normalization are not disclosed.
Limitations / disclaimer
AMI is descriptive of public obligation cadence. It is not a forecast of agency policy direction and is not investment advice.
08 · Index
State Momentum Index (SMI).
A state-level view that combines federal flow into the state, large-load interconnection growth, permitting velocity, and qualified-supplier density into a single comparable score.
What it is
A 50-state score that summarizes where capital is concentrating geographically, built from normalized federal, energy, permitting, and supplier inputs.
Why it matters
Capital is geographically uneven. SMI lets users see which states are absorbing real capital today, not which states have announced the most aspirational plans.
Who uses it
Economic-development leaders benchmarking their state; site-selection teams; investors tracking regional infrastructure exposure.
Inputs / data sources
Trailing federal obligation flow per capita, year-over-year change in large-load interconnection queue volume, trailing-12-month permitting square footage in relevant sectors, and a qualified-supplier density measure drawn from public vendor lists.
Outputs
A 0–100 state score, a 50-state ranked view, and the underlying input breakouts available via the Evidence Chain.
Example use case
A regional EDO uses the SMI to identify the two adjacent states pulling ahead in grid and permitting velocity, and adjusts its incentive posture accordingly.
Transparency note
Capitora publishes the input categories. Per-input weights, winsorization, and the proprietary normalization are not disclosed.
Limitations / disclaimer
SMI describes observed capital concentration today; it is not a forecast of GDP, employment, or any individual project outcome.
09 · Governance
Review cadence, versioning, and disclosures.
Methodology is reviewed quarterly. Material changes are versioned and published before they take effect. Categories of inputs and what each model does are public; weights, prompts, and ranking rules are proprietary.
| Version | Date | Change |
|---|---|---|
| v1.0 | Current | Methodology Center expanded to nine branded models (Capitora Intelligence, CRI, Opportunity Score, HWI, EntityGraph, Evidence Chain, FFI, AMI, SMI). |
| v0.1 | Prior | Initial public methodology — framework, classification, confidence, opportunity, state momentum, Hidden Winners pipeline. |
What this page does not disclose
To protect the integrity of Capitora's research, we do not publish proprietary weights, normalization parameters, prompts, source code, internal architecture, or private ranking rules. We do publish what each model measures, the categories of inputs it uses, and the review cadence — enough for any reader to evaluate the framework on its merits.
Disclosure
Capitora is a research and intelligence platform. Nothing on this page or elsewhere on the product constitutes investment, legal, or tax advice. See Disclosures for the full legal framework.